Prophecy and Current Events

Opposition leader Ariel Sharon is still way ahead in the race for prime minister, according to three polls out today. The polls, published in Friday newspapers, showed Sharon ahead by 16 to 18 percentage points. That_s a two point gain for Barak, but hardly an encouragement. "We do have a little of a shift but it's not enough to say we are having a fantastic reversal," said Hanoch Smith, who conducted one of the polls. "It's highly doubtful [the gap could close], but it could happen." Sharon_s lead is all the more impressive because it follows a week of foul-ups in his election campaign, which included being publicly chided by a schoolgirl who said he was unfit to serve as prime minister because of his role in the unpopular war in Lebanon. "It was the worst week ever for Sharon, but despite this we are in trouble," one of Barak's cabinet ministers told Israel_s biggest newspaper "Yediot Ahronot."

The polls continued to show that if Sharon would run against 77-year-old former Prime Minister Shimon Peres, the race would be a virtual dead heat, with Sharon holding a two-percentage point advantage. That is putting pressure on Barak to drop out of the race, although he insists he has no intention to do so. Peace activists ran a front page advertisement in the "Ha_aretz" newspaper today urging Barak to step down so Peres can run. "Your decision will decide the fate of Israel," the ad said. "Ehud, the responsibility is entirely on your shoulders."

The poll in "Yediot Ahronot" attributed Barak_s poor showing to his decision to hold peace talks in Egypt so close to the election. One of Israel_s leading political scientists and a leading peace activist, Professor Shlomo Avineri, described the negotiations as a violation of democratic norms that hurt "the legitimacy of the peace talks." Barak has also been hurt by his decision to continue negotiations as Palestinian violence continues. Last night, another Israeli was shot dead by Palestinian gunmen, this time in Jerusalem. Akiva Pashkous, a 45-year-old father of five, was gunned down in his car near a factory where he worked in the Atarot industrial zone in north Jerusalem. A group believed to be an offshoot of Yasser Arafat's Fatah faction claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was in revenge for Israel_s assassination last month of Thabet Thabet, a senior Fatah official in Palestinian-ruled Tulkarm. Prime Minister Ehud Barak vowed to catch and punish the killers, but he decided to continue the Taba talks.

Israeli negotiators in Taba say the aim of the talks is to draw up a declaration of principles that will serve as a guideline for future negotiations, but the Palestinians say they will not settle for a partial deal. "We want a comprehensive agreement which covers all issues with a clear timetable and clear mechanisms of implementation," senior Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Korei told reporters. "I think it is very difficult to reach an agreement in the time left. We might end this negotiation at a certain point that keeps the momentum until after the election," he said. The parties are discussing the most sensitive issues of the conflict, including Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees, borders and Jewish settlements. "We are making a very serious effort to achieve as much as possible," said negotiator Yossi Sarid, who added that progress has been "slow." The talks are expected to continue until the middle of next week, when they will recess for elections.

1/28/2001 -

Israel and the Palestinians concluded six days of peace talks in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Taba without an agreement, ending any hope of a breakthrough before Israeli elections on February 6th. However, the sides issued a joint statement saying there was "significant progress." "The Palestinians and Israelis have never been closer to an agreement," said Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami at a Taba news conference. "There is no agreement in our hands but there is a platform, there is a base that will let us reach an agreement after the elections in Israel." The Palestinians were not as optimistic. "There is still a big gap on everything," said the Palestinian team leader, parliament speaker Ahmed Qureia. "Nothing had been achieved on the refugee issue...This is a fierce battle, a battle which has two red lines - one set by us and, unfortunately, one set by them. If they will not recognize the right of return, there would be no progress." The negotiators discussed four main issues in Taba_Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees, final borders and security.

While both sides said they build a foundation for negotiations after the elections, that does not take into account that opposition leader Ariel Sharon will be probably be elected. Sharon has already made it clear that he_ll be playing by a different set of rules. "What we see now...are steps endangering Israel for the sake of some paper, some document or declaration that may help in the elections," Sharon told an electoral rally in the town of Bat-Yam near Tel Aviv. "When the people of Israel learn what's in that paper, what Mr. Barak gave away and is ready to abandon, it won't bring him more votes." As for the prospect of Sharon_s election, Ahmed Qureia told the Taba news conference that "We never and we will not be able to choose with whom we will negotiate from the Israeli side."

So the Palestinians will negotiate with Sharon, but the Israeli offers are likely to be much less generous than they are today. In an effort to push the peace process ahead, efforts are underway to arrange a meeting between Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak in Sweden on Tuesday or Wednesday. Israeli sources said Barak had not yet decided whether to go to Stockholm, and was weighing how being seen at Arafat's side would affect his already slim chances of overcoming Sharon's 16 to 18 percentage point lead in the polls. What could further hurt Barak is word of major concessions at the Taba talks. While details were not disclosed, leaks from the talks indicate that Israel would relinquish 96 percent of Judea and Samaria, while annexing major Jewish settlement blocs near Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. There would also be a land swap that would give the Palestinians an equivalent amount of territory annexed by Israel. Israel is also considering dismantling more than 100 Jewish settlements in Judea, Samaria, the Gaza Strip and the Jordan Valley!

The powerful Histadrut Labor federation is stepping up sanctions in a wage dispute with the government. A full public sector strike could take place tomorrow that would effectively shut down the country. Today, sanctions are causing disruptions at the airport and seaports, and rail services. Some 400,000 public sector workers would be involved in a full strike that would effect government hospitals, telephone and postal services, government offices, air and seaports, among others. Such strikes occur in Israel on the average of once or twice a year. Critics say the Histadrut is a vestige of the old and unproductive Israeli socialism, where the government is far too involved in the economy. The Histadrut is demanding a 16 percent wage hike, the same increase that well-paid Knesset members voted for themselves.

1/29/2001 -

Prime Minister Ehud Barak has suspended contacts with the Palestinians, after Yasser Arafat launched a blistering verbal attack on Israel at a speech in Switzerland. "The current government of Israel is waging and has waged for the past four months a savage and barbaric war as well as a blatant and fascist military aggression against our Palestinian people," Arafat told the annual business summit in Davos. He also accused Israel of using prohibited weapons and ammunition "that include in their composition depleted uranium." Barak was outraged and immediately called off a proposed meeting with Arafat in Sweden. "After Arafat spoke in such a manner against the state of Israel...there isn't any way we can hold this meeting," Barak's security adviser, Danny Yatom, told Army Radio today. He described the speech as "bellicose, inflammatory and intolerable."

Arafat_s speech was an embarrassment for Barak, coming after Israel offered major concessions to the Palestinians at peace talks in Taba, Egypt. Much of the Israeli public is fed up with concessions under fire, with no sense of reciprocation from the Palestinians. A poll published today bore this out, showing Barak trailing opposition leader Ariel Sharon by 16 percentage points, with just eight days to go before elections. The poll, in the mass circulation daily "Yediot Ahronot," showed 49 percent voting for Sharon and 33 percent for Barak. A sizeable 18 percent were undecided. A leading pollster, Yaacov Levy of Gallup Israel, told Army Radio there was no indication that Barak_s peace efforts were paying off. "There is no serious momentum of closing the gap," he said. Meanwhile, in an attempt to broaden his appeal to undecided, middle-of-the-road voters, Sharon said he would work to set up a national unity government with Barak's Labor party if elected. Barak, however, said he would not sit in a coalition with what he called the "extreme right"_a reference to parties on the right of the political spectrum who would likely join a Sharon government.

As if Barak didn_t have enough problems, his government is also the target of escalating labor unrest, as the power Histadrut Labor Federation intensifies a week long strike. Tons of garbage are piling up on the streets here in Jerusalem and other major cities, as state-employed workers press their demands for higher wages. Government offices are closed, telephone services have been disrupted, and the closure of seaports has left 65 ships stranded offshore with some 200 million dollars worth of goods. The Histadrut is threatening a full strike which would effectively shut down the country, with more than 400,000 workers participating. The government fears that yielding to the Histadrut_s demand for a six percent wage increase would fuel inflation.

Israel is sending a field hospital and medical teams to India to help in the earthquake relief effort. Some 150 doctors, nurses and medics are flying to India today. The field hospital contains a surgery ward, laboratory and emergency room, and can treat up to 100 patients. Israel often participates in disaster relief in this part of the world. It played a significant role in the US embassy bombing in Nairobi and in the earthquake in Turkey.

1/30/2001 -

Palestinian gunmen shot and killed an Israeli motorist yesterday as he drove to a Jewish community in Samaria. The attack occurred near Ramallah, north of Jerusalem, and the gunmen fled into Palestinian controlled territory. The victim was Arieh Hershkovitz, 55, a resident of the settlement of Ofra in Samaria. Security sources believe the attack was carried out by Yasser Arafat_s elite Force 17. In a statement, Prime Minister Ehud Barak said he "strongly condemns the attack that was carried out by lowly terrorists...The murderers will be severely punished." The attack occurred as Arafat_s Fatah faction announced that it would step up the intifada ahead of Israeli elections on February 6th. Indeed, violent incidents have escalated in the past day, with Israel troops and Palestinian gunmen exchanging fire at several locations in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Strip.

While orchestrating the violence, Yasser Arafat has also spoken directly to the Israeli public about the peace process. In a rare interview on Israel Channel Two television, Arafat said he would respect the outcome of the election for prime minister and continue negotiations. Asked who he preferred to win, Arafat said: "I don't interfere in the Israeli business. I respect completely what you are doing...It is your election...It's not my business." Asked about the dispute over the Temple Mount, Arafat continued to deny Jewish connections to the site, citing an Israeli newspaper report as proof. "One of your specialists...he said _Temple Mount_ is not a Jewish expression; it is Crusaders' expression...It is not my point of view. It is what I have read from your mass media," Arafat said in the interview, conducted in English. Arafat reminisced about his childhood, saying he used to go to the Western Wall from his uncle's house in Jerusalem to watch Jews pray. "I am completely respecting the Wailing Wall since I was a little boy," he said. When asked if he respected Jewish sovereignty over the area, Arafat said: "I respect completely what had been accepted, and what had been mentioned and what had been agreed upon by the Shaw committee during the British Mandate." The Shaw committee recognized the right of Jews to pray at the Wall, but did not give them autonomy or sovereignty over the site.

Efforts have resumed to arrange a summit between Arafat and Prime Minister Barak before the election. Barak broke off diplomatic contacts with the Palestinians on Sunday until after the election, after Arafat delivered a bellicose anti-Israel speech in Switzerland. But in line with the zigzag policy that has characterized his term, Barak has apparently reversed himself. "There could be a summit before the election. It could be anywhere," said Palestinian Information Minister and negotiator Yasser Abed Rabbo. Barak_s office did not comment, but diplomatic sources confirm that efforts are under way to organize a summit. Israeli media have speculated that if a summit were held, it might take place in Egypt under the sponsorship of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

With elections just a week away, Likud leader Ariel Sharon retains a commanding, 20 point lead over Ehud Barak, according to a poll out today. A Gallup poll published in the "Maariv" newspaper showed the 72-year-old Sharon getting 52 percent of the vote, compared to 32 percent for the 58-year-old Barak. Of the 1,300 people polled, two percent said they would submit a blank ballot, eight percent said they would not vote, and six percent were undecided. Among Israeli Arabs, 35 percent plan to vote for Barak and 10 percent for Sharon. The Gallup poll showed Sharon neck-and-neck with Shimon Peres if Barak were to step aside and let the former prime minister run as the Labor candidate. The poll showed Sharon and Peres would each garner 46 percent of the vote. An informal poll conducted by the "Yediot Ahronot" daily in the town of Rehovot in central Israel showed Sharon trouncing Barak by 72 to 24 percent.

1/31/2001 -

Prime Minister Ehud Barak has reportedly proposed transferring sovereignty over the Temple Mount to Moslem control. According to the Israeli newspaper "Ma_ariv," Israel proposed that sovereignty over the Mount would be given to Islamic countries for a five-year trial period. The proposal was made at the recent peace talks in Taba, Egypt. The newspaper said that during the five-year period, the final status of the site would be discussed, and that if no agreement was reached, the two sides would follow former President Clinton's proposal and hand it to Palestinian control. "Ma_ariv" also reported a narrowing of the gaps on the thorny issue of Palestinian refugees. The paper said the Palestinians agreed that most refugees would resettle in the future Palestinian state and areas Israel would give to the Palestinians as part of a land swap. One or more cities for refugees would be built in such areas, including the Halutza Sands near the Gaza Strip. Palestinian negotiator Ahmed Qureia denied that the Palestinians had softened their position, which calls for all refugees to be allowed to return to their former homes in Israel. "We are still facing a lot of problems. There is a need for more work to bridge these gaps," Qureia said.

Barak_s reported concessions and continuing Palestinian violence are further hurting his chances for re-election, according to the latest poll. The poll, published today in the English language "Jerusalem Post," put Barak a record 22 percentage points behind Likud leader Ariel Sharon. A poll in the same newspaper on Friday showed the gap at 16 points. Barak has dismissed the surveys, saying, "I don't believe in polls. I've seen too many of them. I believe there is only one relevant poll, and this is on the sixth of February," he told the Foreign Press Association. "I believe that we will win." But the widening gap has increased speculation that Barak will drop out of the race at the last minute and allow former Prime Minister Shimon Peres to run in his place. Barak faces a Friday deadline to decide, and the daily "Ha'aretz" quoted senior officials close to Barak as saying he might quit if polls remain unfavorable.

Meanwhile, Sharon_s left-wing opponents are continuing the mud-slinging. Yesterday, thousands of Israeli army reservists received fake wartime call-up notices believed to have been sent by Barak supporters to try to paint Sharon as a warmonger before the election on February 6th. Deputy Defence Minister Ephraim Sneh denied Barak's campaign was involved in the stunt, but said: "It showed a fear the public has that if Ariel Sharon is elected they will receive real wartime conscription notices." But many Israelis believe the war is already happening, under the failed policies of Ehud Barak. In the latest incidents, a roadside bomb exploded near an Israeli patrol in the Gaza Strip, and an Israeli car came under fire near Palestinian-ruled Ramallah. In both incidents, there were no casualties. Yesterday, Palestinians fired a mortar shell at the community of Netzarim in Gaza. It hit a house, but miraculously, no one was injured.

Israel_s labor strike that caused disruptions around the country for the past ten days ended today, when the government and the powerful Histadrut labor federation reached a compromise in a wage dispute. The strike had effected air and seaports, government offices, hospitals and the post office, among others. The workers received a 3.6 percent wage increase, instead of the six percent demanded by the Histadrut. The current agreement will, however, only last for six months, which means that Israel will probably be in for a new round of labor unrest in the summer.

2/1/2001 -

Facing a midnight deadline, Prime Minister Ehud Barak is resisting pressure to step down from the election race, and allow former Prime Minister Shimon Peres to run in his place. According to a poll published today, Barak is trailing opposition leader Ariel Sharon by 46 to 27 percent. Translated into actual results, this would mean Sharon can expect to win more than 60 percent of valid votes cast. Denying reports that close advisers told him to drop out in favor of Peres, Barak said, "No one dared to approach me, and for good reason. This idea has no chance." Barak also indirectly accused Peres of sabotaging his campaign. Without directly quoting him, Barak referred to a statement by former Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin who labeled Peres a "tireless schemer." Peres aides are already publically blaming Barak for an election loss that appears inevitable.

An Israeli was shot and killed by Palestinian gunmen today in Samaria. The victim, accompanied by an Israeli Arab, went to Palestinian-ruled Jenin despite a military order strictly forbidding Israelis from entering the autonomy. An army spokeswoman said the man apparently entered the town to repair his car, and was shot in the head and chest. He was taken to a checkpoint north of the city and then to a hospital in Israel where he died while undergoing surgery. The shooting of Israelis by Palestinian gunmen is an almost daily event, and is further hurting Barak_s chances for re-election.

Despite the violence, efforts are continuing to arrange a summit between Barak and Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat before the election. The summit could take place in Egypt on Sunday, and would also be attended by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and perhaps Jordan's King Abdullah. Israeli radio reports said Arafat met overnight with a Barak envoy, Cabinet Minister Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, to prepare the Egypt summit. While a last-minute summit is not expected to produce a breakthrough in peace talks, it would signal strong Arab support for Barak. That could encourage Israeli Arabs, many of whom plan to boycott the elections, to come out and vote for the Prime Minister. Barak lost the support of Israeli Arabs when 13 of their own were killed by Israeli police in the early days of the Palestinian uprising.

Barak has canceled a visit to two Jewish communities in Samaria after he was snubbed by residents who said it was an election ploy. The Council of Jewish Communities in Judea, Samaria and Gaza said, "The residents do not feel it is fitting to become part of Barak_s campaign statistics." Barak had intended to visit the family of a Jewish resident killed this week by Palestinian gunmen, something he has conspicuously failed to do throughout the four-month-old uprising. "We did not want the event to turn into a political circus," the victim_s brother said. Other residents said they did not want to meet with the man who is bargaining with their homes.

2/2/2001 -

Three polls published today in Israeli newspapers show opposition leader Ariel Sharon will win next Tuesday_s election by a landslide; he holds a 17 to 21 point lead over Prime Minister Ehud Barak. A poll in the mass circulation daily "Yediot Ahronot" showed Sharon with 56 percentage points and Barak with only 35. The other 9 percent were undecided. A Gallup poll in the "Maariv" daily showed Sharon leading by 51 to 34 points, while the English language "Jerusalem Post" put the margin at 50 to 30 points. The "Post" poll noted that Sharon's support has increased steadily from 40 percentage points on January 12th.

Barak_s woes are largely due to his failure to quell the four-month-old Palestinian uprising. Yesterday, two more Israelis were shot dead by Palestinian gunmen in separate attacks in Judea and Samaria. Last night, Shmuel Gillis, a 42-year-old doctor, was killed in a drive-by shooting near Hebron. He was driving on the main Israeli-controlled highway from Jerusalem to Hebron. Earlier, Lior Attiah, 23, was shot and fatally wounded near Palestinian-ruled Jenin. In both attacks, the gunmen easily escaped into Palestinian controlled territory, which has become a safe-haven for terrorists. Barak denounced the killings, and in what has almost become a daily mantra, he said the attackers would be tracked down and punished. But since Barak does not seem to have an answer to the frequent killings, Israelis are turning to Sharon, a tough former general who has promised to restore security.

Despite his poor showing in the polls, Barak has decided to stay in the race. A midnight deadline passed and Barak made good on his vow not to drop out and allow former Prime Minister Shimon Peres to run in his place. According to Israeli election law, parties could change candidates until four days before the voting on February 6th. The deadline removed a heavy burden from Barak, who has been dogged by Peres_ virtual candidacy for weeks. Because Barak has consistently trailed Sharon by double digits in the polls, he came under increasing pressure to allow Peres to replace him as the peace camp candidate. The issue dominated newscasts and talk shows throughout the campaign, and Barak was repeatedly asked by reporters if he would step down and let Peres_his nemesis_run. Barak kept his word and decided to fight the good fight, although he_s headed for a knockout on Tuesday.

In the wake of the killing of the two Israelis, Barak abruptly called off international efforts to arrange a summit meeting with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat before the election. Barak apparently concluded that meeting with Arafat while Palestinian violence continues unabated would not help his chances for re-election. The decision reflected the zigzag policy that has characterized Barak_s short term in office. Last Sunday, Barak called off plans to meet with Arafat, after the latter gave a harsh anti-Israel speech in Switzerland. A day later, he reversed himself and said he was prepared to meet Arafat. Then, he reversed himself again by canceling plans for the meeting.

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